WaveTracker™ Portfolio ViewWeekly portfolio snapshots, with statistics.

Here’s our latest portfolio tracking spreadsheet with updated performance numbers as of 9 May 2009. Please click on the thumbnail at right for an expanded view.

We’ve closed out 23 new trades since our last portfolio snapshot on April 24th, and are happy to report some nice gains along the way.

Our model portfolio is now +170% since inception, net after commissions, with over 9 out of 10 winning trades overall and an average hold time of under 10 days.

Notable movers for the week included FAZ (inverse triple-leveraged financials) for a 20% gain and UCD (double-leveraged commodity index) for 19%. Stay tuned for a volatile next week or two, as we should experience plenty of movement if our predicted selloff comes to pass.

For what it’s worth,

Ken

Click the link below to view portfolio table in its own window:

http://www.editgrid.com/user/tradewithwaves/Portfolio_Update_20090508

Here’s our latest portfolio tracking spreadsheet with updated performance numbers as of 24 April 2009. Please click on the thumbnail below for an expanded view.

We’ve closed out 26 new trades since our last portfolio snapshot on April 17th, for a total of 22 winning trades and just 3 small losers (and one flat).

Since the inception of our official model portfolio in June ‘08, as of this week our portfolio is +166% after commissions with nearly 93% winning trades overall, and an average hold time of less than 10 days.

Real-time risk management is the name of the game here, folks. Note that this week we closed winning trades with both TNA (triple leveraged S&P ETF) and TZA (inverse triple S&P ETF), in some cases on the very same day. With our composite decision support model, we’re able to ladder our entries and exits to take advantage of developing patterns in both directions – even at the very same time if conditions allow. This is one of the benefits of following an egoless, emotion-free trading system.

For what it’s worth,

Ken

Click the link below to view portfolio table in its own window:

http://www.editgrid.com/user/tradewithwaves/Portfolio_Update_20090424

Here’s the latest updated portfolio performance spreadsheet with our current numbers as of 17 April 2009. Please click on the thumbnail below for an expanded view.

We’ve been blessed with some big movers since our last portfolio snapshot, including a nice 43% bump on UYG, and back-to-back 75% and 42% profits on TNA (the triple leveraged S&P ETF).

Since the inception of our official model portfolio in June ‘08, our portfolio is now +156% after commissions, with over 93% winning trades. We sincerely hope that observing our strategy has generated impressive gains in your portfolio as well.

Here’s an interesting statistic: since inception, only 65 out of our 240 portfolio plays were short. So, it’s worth pointing out that if you think we only beat the S&P because we were short for a year and the market went down, look again. Only 27% of our plays were short, meaning 73% of our plays were longs, making money while the market on the whole got killed.

It’s not the direction that matters, friends… it’s the system for entry and exit!

For what it’s worth,

Ken

Click the link below to view portfolio table in its own window:

http://www.editgrid.com/user/tradewithwaves/Portfolio_Update_20090417

Here’s the updated portfolio performance spreadsheet with our latest numbers as of 20 March 2009. Click on the thumbnail below for an expanded view.

We’re happy to report that since our January 20th comment, we’ve booked 78 winning trades and only 10 losing trades.

Since the inception of our official model portfolio in June ‘08, our portfolio is +145% after commissions, with the average gain on winners of 31%, the average loss on losers of -10%; with 93% winners, and 7% losers.

Once again, we’d like to point out the exceptionally low time in market required by our decision support system. The average hold time for one of our trades is an astounding 10 days, which means that your capital at risk following our system is a fraction of what it otherwise would be had you invested in a typical index or mutual fund.

For what it’s worth,

Ken

Click the link below to view portfolio table in its own window:

http://www.editgrid.com/user/tradewithwaves/Portfolio_Update_20090320

Here are our latest performance numbers as of 20 February 2009. Click on the thumbnail below for a detailed view of our portfolio spreadsheet to date.

With humility, we are happy to report the following:

Since the inception of our official model portfolio in June ‘08, our portfolio is +133% after commissions, with the average gain on winners of 34%, the average loss on losers of -10%; with 93% winners, and 7% losers.

If you think that is shocking, here’s the awe…our average time in market per trade is 12 days. So, compared to the S&P 500, which has average time in market of 365 days (or 100% exposure risk), we have only 3% of the exposure risk of the S&P.

Oh, did I mention that our +133% outperformed the S&P by a few basis points? 133% – (-38%) = 171%. The difference in performance between using our trades vs. money in an S&P Index Fund is 171%. In other words, if you had $100,000 in each starting on June 1, 2008, the index fund would be now worth $62,000, while the account using our trades would be worth $233,000.

For what it’s worth,

Ken

Click the link below to view portfolio table in its own window:

http://www.editgrid.com/user/tradewithwaves/Portfolio_Update_20090222

(See blog post: KITCHEN SINK GONE for full story.)

Here are the DDM entry prices that correspond to the Dow entry levels above:

ACTION:  Our system is forecasting an imminent decline toward the 7100-7400 +/- 300 range prior to a multi month rally.  From the Dow’s close Friday near 8500, that could be nearly 15%.  So, aggressive traders could buy vehicles from the Short list above and benefit from the decline.  Less aggressive traders could take the potential decline of 8500 to 7000, or 1500 points, and buy vehicles from the Long list above at three equally spaced levels like 8000, 7500, and 7000.  This would take much of the anxiety out of buying into a falling market, which is what the insiders actually do!  Conservative traders could wait until the 7100-7400 range is visited and buy vehicles from Long list above.

So, to summarize, there is a high probability of a “thrust” under Dow 8000 coming soon.  This move can be played many ways, including getting short for the ride and benefitting by the decline, getting long by stepping into the decline and buying regularly on the way down to the expected support target range, or waiting to get long until the support target range is visited.  The markets are groping for a bottom in this time frame and price range.  The coming rally should be at least 1900 Dow points or at least 28%, assuming the 7000 area holds.  Otherwise, an even larger percentage gain should be available from whatever lower level contains the slide.

Our portfolio will be using the multiple entry strategy to get long on the downside into the support target range.  We will track our entries and exits for our members to follow.

For what it’s worth,

Ken